personal player football: PRELIMINARY January 2011 SST Anomaly Update

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

PRELIMINARY January 2011 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at PRELIMINARY January 2011 SST Anomaly Update

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Sorry for the delay. Snow (lots of it) and family obligations have kept me from posting and responding to comments on posts for a few days. And yes, I'll be responding to Tamino.

The January 2011 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until February 7th. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for January 2011 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through January 26, 2011, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data, starting it in January 2004, so that the variations can be seen.

PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA
Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies have taken another drop. Based on the preliminary data they’re at -1.6 deg C.

http://i51.tinypic.com/2rqoadc.jpg
Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
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Monthly Global SST anomalies, according to the preliminary data, have dropped a healthy 0.04 deg C. The preliminary global SST anomaly is 0.055 deg C.

http://i54.tinypic.com/qqs77l.jpg
Monthly Global SST Anomalies
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A NOTE ABOUT THE YEAR-TO-YEAR VARIABILITY
The following is a repeat of a discussion from the past updates

As noted in the November 2010 SST Anomaly Update, the global SST anomalies do not appear as though they will drop to the level they had reached during the 2007/08 La Niña, even if one were to account for the differences in NINO3.4 SST anomalies. This of course will be raised by alarmists as additional proof of anthropogenic global warming.

But the reason the global SST anomalies have warmed in that time is due primarily to the fact that the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans (about 25% of the surface area of the global oceans) can warm in response to both El Niño and La Niña events. Refer to Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2, and the video included in La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos. In addition, the North Atlantic also remains at elevated levels during La Niña events in response to the ENSO-related warming of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension. This was discussed and illustrated in the recent post The ENSO-Related Variations In Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) SST Anomalies And Their Impact On Northern Hemisphere Temperatures.

Keep in mind, the warm water released from below the surface of the Pacific Warm Pool doesn’t simply vanish at the end of the El Niño.

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WEEKLY DATA
The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomaly data are continuing to cycle up and down at what appears to be the low end of the 2010/11 La Niña. They are at -1.68 deg C.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2edoxo6.jpg
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
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Weekly Global SST Anomalies have dropped slightly, and it appears they also might have reached the seasonal low. Will they drop more? They are presently at +0.069 deg C.